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"as sure as you can be" which in accord with ispot etiquette means that you KNOW what this species is, ie you are familiar with the genus and all confusion species and can see all relevant characters in this photo. But i cannot see the shaded cross-veins in these photos, can you? do you have other photos or the specimens in which these are clear?
Stubbs and Falk 2002, sometimes it's faint!
I cannot see any shading in picture 3 for the appropriate veins. I would have thought that, without the specimen, this needs to be left as Neoascia.
My Flickr photos...
that this is the appropriate cautious approach, although I think I can say with fairly hight confidence that this in not podagrica but one of the clear-veined species.
Taking the wing venation out of the equation are there any other factors that point to podagrica or tenur? as Stubbs and Falk say that wing venation cannot be always be a reliable factor in determining podagrica - so there must be something else!
For example 2 yellow/orange bands on the abdomen or 1 or perhaps either
Lat/Lng: 52.1, -3.4
OS grid ref: SO0451