Confidence: I'm as sure as I can be.
Notes: I don't think the photo shows the critical features that would allow these two species to be reliably separated. To distinguish males look for a thin filament extending beyond the tip of the tail (palmate), dark webbing between toes of hind feet (palmate), spotting on throat (smooth). Females very similar but throat spotting also serves to separate smooth from palmate (no spots). Smooth newt is larger but there is overlap in size.